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Discussion Paper
Mexico in U.S. Supply Chains: Lessons from 2018-19 Tariffs
In the wake of the 2018–19 U.S.-China tariff hikes, there has been a significant shift in U.S. supply chains, with Mexico emerging as the largest supplier of U.S. imports, surpassing China. This shift has been attributed in part to Mexico gaining a cost advantage over China following the U.S tariffs on China.
Discussion Paper
Vietnam's Export Boom to the U.S.: The Role of Chinese Firms
In recent years, Vietnam has attracted considerable attention as a potential major beneficiary of the 2018-19 U.S.-China tariff increases, reflecting substantial trade diversion as exports shifted away from China (Alfaro and Chor, 2023; Freund et al., 2024). As shown in the left panel of Figure 1, U.S. imports from China declined sharply after the 2018-19 tariffs, while imports from Vietnam tripled by 2025.
Discussion Paper
A Common Pattern behind Diverging Fortunes: U.S. Tariffs and Exports from Canada and Mexico
The 2025 U.S. tariff increases were followed by sharply different export outcomes in Canada and Mexico. Comparing the 12 months ending in April 2026 with calendar year 2024, Canadian goods exports to the United States fell about 10 percent, while Mexican exports rose about 16 percent, even though Mexico faced a higher average tariff exposure (figure 1). Do these contrasting outcomes mean that tariffs mattered for Canada but had little effect on Mexico, even though both economies depend heavily on the U.S. market?