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Journal Article
Opinion: Inflation and the Road Ahead for Research
Athreya, Kartik B. (2022-10)
While the Fed has never been a stranger to criticism, the criticism has been notable and specific during the past year. The subject: inflation. This is of course fully understandable. Memories remain fresh of last spring and summer, when annual inflation in "personal consumption expenditures" — which the Fed targets to grow at just 2 percent per year — reached 7 percent. Current inflation remains well above target.
Econ Focus , Volume 22 , Issue 4Q , Pages 32

Briefing
Who Values Access to College?
Ionescu, Felicia; Vidangos, Ivan; Neelakantan, Urvi; Athreya, Kartik B. (2020-03)
A quantitative model of college enrollment suggests that the value of college access varies greatly across individuals. Forty percent place no value on the option to attend despite large public subsidies, while 25 percent would enroll even without the subsidies. In the model, redirecting public funds from those who attend college irrespective of subsidies to those who don’t attend even with subsidies both preserves college enrollment and improves overall outcomes. While these two groups are clearly visible only in the model, and not in the data, this analysis suggests that more-targeted ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue 20-03 , Pages 5

Journal Article
The cost of unanticipated household finance shocks : two examples
Neelakantan, Urvi; Athreya, Kartik B. (2011-10)
This article presents two simple calculations aimed at providing a first step in quantifying the costs of unanticipated financial shocks to a household. The two types of shocks considered are (1) an unanticipated drop in net worth and (2) an unexpected increase in the interest rate on borrowing. The shocks are faced by households in a life-cycle consumption-savings model and the costs are measured in terms of annual consumption. In general, for empirically plausible shocks, the results show that net worth shocks are substantially costlier than interest rate shocks. The costs of the shocks ...
Economic Quarterly , Volume 97 , Issue 4Q , Pages 431-450

Briefing
Implications of Risks and Rewards in College Decisions
Athreya, Kartik B.; Price, David A. (2013-06)
Despite a large and growing earnings premium for college graduates, growth in college enrollment and especially college attainment in the United States has been quite slow. The labor market's apparent lack of responsiveness to the earnings premium may be driven in part by the risks that marginally prepared students face when they go to college. Failing or dropping out could leave them with low wealth, high debt, and low earnings. Recent research indicates that neither further increases in the earnings premium nor reductions in college costs are likely to produce large increases in the college ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue June

Working Paper
Loan guarantees for consumer credit markets
Athreya, Kartik B.; Tam, Xuan S.; Young, Eric (2011)
Loan guarantees are arguably the most widely used policy intervention in credit markets, especially for consumers. This may be natural, as they have several features that, a priori, suggest that they might be particularly effective in improving allocations. However, despite this, little is actually known about the size of their effects on prices, allocations, and welfare. ; In this paper, we provide a quantitative assessment of loan guarantees, in the context of unsecured consumption loans. Our work is novel as it studies loan guarantees in a rich dynamic model where credit allocation is ...
Working Paper , Paper 11-06

Journal Article
Consumption smoothing and the measured regressivity of consumption taxes
Athreya, Kartik B.; Reilly, Devin (2009-01)
In this article, we address two questions. First, how will a move to pure consumption taxation matter for aggregate outcomes? Second, how regressive are consumption taxes? We find as follows. First, a move to a consumption tax will increase savings taken into retirement but will not alter either labor supply or consumption variability substantially. Second, we show that regressivity is a measure that is quantitatively sensitive to the frequency of income being used. In particular, we show that when measures of tax incidence are based on annual income, successful consumption smoothing leads to ...
Economic Quarterly , Volume 95 , Issue Win , Pages 75-100

Journal Article
Opinion: Our Work on Rural Economies
Athreya, Kartik B. (2022-01)
Rural areas and small towns come in many varieties. Some are affluent; some are poor. Some are home to major universities and hospitals; some are isolated. About a quarter of the population of the Fifth District lives in rural counties. And on average, across many measures, rural America has been having a harder time than the cities — in terms of employment, educational attainment, and health. As a regional Fed, it is in our mission to help wherever we can to promote economic vitality in our District. So, starting in early 2018, the Richmond Fed stepped up its efforts to learn about rural ...
Econ Focus , Issue 1Q , Pages 32

Briefing
The Persistence of Financial Distress
Romero, Jessica Sackett; Athreya, Kartik B. (2019-03)
Household financial distress is pervasive. Is this pattern driven by a small share of individuals experiencing persistent distress, by the majority facing more occasional distress, or something in between? Recent research indicates that over a lifetime, financial distress is unlikely for most but very persistent for some. Models that account for the uncertain evolution of consumers' earnings over time and the availability of formal consumer bankruptcy cannot explain ? by themselves ? this pattern, but a model that also allows for informal default and variation in consumers' willingness to ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue March

Working Paper
The Persistence of Financial Distress
Sanchez, Juan M.; Athreya, Kartik B.; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose (2017-11-09)
Using recently available proprietary panel data, we show that while many (35%) US consumers experience financial distress at some point in the life cycle, most of the events of financial distress are primarily concentrated in a much smaller proportion of consumers in persistent trouble. Roughly 10% of consumers are distressed for more than a quarter of the life cycle, and less than 10% of borrowers account for half of all distress events. These facts can be largely accounted for in a straightforward extension of a workhorse model of defaultable debt that accommodates a simple form of ...
Working Paper , Paper 17-14

Briefing
Who Values Access to College?
Ionescu, Felicia; Vidangos, Ivan; Neelakantan, Urvi; Athreya, Kartik B.; Romero, Jessie (2020-03)
A quantitative model of college enrollment suggests that the value of college access varies greatly across individuals. Forty percent place no value on the option to attend despite large public subsidies, while 25 percent would enroll even without the subsidies. In the model, redirecting public funds from those who attend college irrespective of subsidies to those who don’t attend even with subsidies both preserves college enrollment and improves overall outcomes. While these two groups are clearly visible only in the model, and not in the data, this analysis suggests that more-targeted ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 20 , Issue 03

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