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Working Paper
Currency Crises and Foreign Credit in Emerging Markets: Credit Crunch or Demand Effect?
Currency crises of the past decade highlighted the importance of balance-sheet effects of currency crises. In credit-constrained markets such effects may lead to further declines in credit. Controlling for a host of fundamentals, we find a systematic decline in foreign credit to emerging market private firms of about 25% in the first year following currency crises, which we define as large changes in real value of the currency. This decline is especially large in the first five months, lessens in the second year and disappears entirely by the third year. We identify the effects of currency ...
Working Paper
Sovereign Debt Crises and Credit to the Private Sector
We use micro–level data to analyze emerging markets’ private sector access to international debt markets during sovereign debt crises. Using fixed effect analysis, we find that these crises are systematically accompanied by a decline in foreign credit domestic private firms, both during debt renegotiations and for over two years after the restructuring agreements are reached. This decline is large (over 20 percent), statistically significant, and robust when we control for a host of fundamentals. We find that this effect is concentrated in the non-financial sector and is different for ...