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Not All Bursting Market Bubbles Have the Same Recessionary Effect
The popped IT bubble ushered in an eight-month recession in 2001. The burst housing bubble resulted in the Great Recession (2007-09). Why the difference?
Journal Article
Increasing Employment by Halting Pandemic Unemployment Benefits
In mid-2021, 26 states halted participation in all or some federal emergency unemployment benefits (EUB) programs before those programs' federal funding lapsed. This article uses this asynchronous EUB cessation between early- and late-halting states to estimate the causal impact of benefit cessation on employment. We find that cessation increased employment by 29 persons for every 100 (pre-halt) EUB recipients. Expressed as a number of jobs, if all states had halted EUB in June, September employment would have been 3.4 million persons higher relative to a no-halt counterfactual. Late-halting ...
Working Paper
The Jobs Effect of Ending Pandemic Unemployment Benefits: A State-Level Analysis
This paper uses the asynchronous cessation of emergency unemployment benefits (EUB) in 2021 to investigate the jobs impact of ending unemployment benefits. While some states stopped providing EUB in September, others stopped as early as June. Using the cessation month as an instrument, we estimate the effect on employment of reducing unemployment rolls. In the second month following a state’s program termination, for every 100 person reduction in beneficiaries, state employment causally increased by about 27 persons. The effect is statistically different from zero and robust to a wide array ...
The End of Emergency Pandemic Unemployment Benefits in 2021
Although many saw the $300 weekly add-on as the key disincentive to work, the large drop in benefit recipients was driven primarily by the halt in other federal jobless programs.
How COVID-19 Has Impacted Stock Performance by Industry
Aggregate market indexes such as the S&P 500 have fully recovered since the beginning of the pandemic, but not all sectors have performed equally well.
Journal Article
Geographic Dispersion in U.S. Employment
In the U.S., 112 of more than 3,000 counties accounted for 50% of employment in 2020.
Journal Article
Anecdotal Evidence Suggests State Capacity Unrelated to COVID-19 Spread
The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored many societal issues, including the capacity of different world governments to contain the virus’ spread.
Working Paper
The Jobs Effect of Ending Pandemic Unemployment Benefits: A State-Level Analysis
This note uses the asynchronous cessation of emergency unemployment benefits (EUB) in 2021 to investigate the jobs impact of ending unemployment benefits. While some states stopped providing EUB in September, other states stopped in June and July. Using the cessation month as an instrument, we estimate the causal effect on employment of reducing unemployment rolls. In the first three months following a state’s program termination, for every 100 person reduction in beneficiaries, state employment causally increased by about 35 persons. The effect is statistically different from zero and ...
Journal Article
Who’s Driving a Recent Decline in Life Expectancy?
Life expectancy in the U.S. and most other G-7 nations declined from 2019 to 2021. For the U.S., it was the biggest two-year drop since the early 1920s.
V-Shaped Recovery Eludes G-7 Countries
Economic growth should overshoot its long-run trend to make up for the downturn caused by the pandemic. So far, this hasn’t happened.