The Evolution of the Job Finding Rate during the COVID-19 Recession
Birinci, Serdar; Amburgey, Aaron; Trần, Ngân (2021-09-28)
The unusual nature of the COVID-19 recession appears to have masked the severity of the downturn’s impact on the rate at which unemployed workers found jobs.
On the Economy

The St. Louis Fed's Financial Stress Index, Version 2.0
Amburgey, Aaron; Kliesen, Kevin L.; McCracken, Michael W.; Bokun, Kathryn (2020-03-26)
The St. Louis Fed's financial stress index has been recalibrated to better capture evolving stresses in financial markets.
On the Economy

Price Volatility and Headline Inflation
McCracken, Michael W.; Amburgey, Aaron (2021-08-24)
Movements in “sticky prices”—items that show low price volatility—may indicate that recent swings in U.S. headline inflation are only temporary.
On the Economy

Which Workers Have Been Most Affected by the COVID-19 Pandemic?
Birinci, Serdar; Amburgey, Aaron (2020-07-30)
Occupations that earn less than $34,963 on average—such as cashiers, servers and janitors—accounted for 34% of the increase in unemployment from January to April.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Unintended Consequences of Coronavirus-Related Unemployment Insurance Tax Laws
Amburgey, Aaron; Birinci, Serdar (2020-04-17)
Waived employer payroll tax increases for state unemployment insurance appear to have increased layoffs.
Economic Synopses , Issue 21

Market-Based Measures of Inflation Risks
McCracken, Michael W.; Amburgey, Aaron (2021-03-24)
Forecasts typically focus on estimates of expected inflation, but some forecasts look at the probability of different inflation rates in the future.
On the Economy

How COVID-19 May Be Affecting Inflation
McCracken, Michael W.; Amburgey, Aaron (2021-02-02)
U.S. consumer spending patterns have changed during the pandemic, and that may be affecting the measurement of inflation.
On the Economy

How Job Separations Differed between the Great Recession and COVID-19 Recession
Birinci, Serdar; Amburgey, Aaron (2021-06-22)
Both the Great Recession and the COVID-19 recession created huge shocks to the U.S. labor market. But job separation rates hit income groups differently during the two downturns.
On the Economy

Job Switching Rates during a Recession
Birinci, Serdar; Amburgey, Aaron (2021-08-19)
The rate at which workers move to new jobs has progressed differently during the COVID-19 recession than during the Great Recession.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Hires and Separations During the COVID-19 Crisis by Firm Size
Birinci, Serdar; Amburgey, Aaron (2022-03-29)
The negative effects of the COVID-19 crisis were larger for firms with under 50 employees, even with loans from the Paycheck Protection Program.
Economic Synopses , Issue 8 , Pages 1-3