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Author:Amburgey, Aaron 

Working Paper
Growth-at-Risk is Investment-at-Risk

We investigate the role financial conditions play in the composition of U.S. growth-at-risk. We document that, by a wide margin, growth-at-risk is investment-at-risk. That is, if financial conditions indicate U.S. real GDP growth will be in the lower tail of its conditional distribution, we know that the main contributor is a decline in investment. Consumption contributes under extreme financial stress. Government spending and net exports do not play a role. We show that leverage plays a key role in determining both consumption- and investment-at-risk, which provides support to the financial ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-020

Working Paper
Growth-at-Risk is Investment-at-Risk

We investigate the role financial conditions play in the composition of U.S. growth-at-risk. We document that, by a wide margin, growth-at-risk is investment-at-risk. That is, if financial conditions indicate U.S. real GDP growth will be in the lower tail of its conditional distribution, we know that the main contributor is a decline in investment. Consumption contributes under extreme financial stress. Government spending and net exports do not play a role.
Working Papers , Paper 2023-020

How Has the COVID-19 Recession Affected U.S. Labor across Occupations and Industries?

COVID-19 hit the U.S. labor market hard, but relative changes in employment and hours worked vary across occupations and industries.
On the Economy

Working Paper
On the Real-Time Predictive Content of Financial Conditions Indices for Growth

We provide evidence on the real-time predictive content of the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), for conditional quantiles of U.S. real GDP growth. Our work is distinct from the literature in two specific ways. First, we construct (unofficial) real-time vintages of the NFCI. This allows us to conduct out-of-sample analysis without introducing the kind of look-ahead biases that are naturally introduced when using a single current vintage. We then develop methods for conducting asymptotic inference on tests of equal tick loss between nested quantile regression models when the data are ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-003

Price Volatility and Headline Inflation

Movements in “sticky prices”—items that show low price volatility—may indicate that recent swings in U.S. headline inflation are only temporary.
On the Economy

Journal Article
The Great Resignation vs. The Great Reallocation: Industry-Level Evidence

Some workers have experienced the Great Resignation, but others have gone through the Great Reallocation— transferring from one job to another.
Economic Synopses , Issue 4 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
Unintended Consequences of Coronavirus-Related Unemployment Insurance Tax Laws

Waived employer payroll tax increases for state unemployment insurance appear to have increased layoffs.
Economic Synopses , Issue 21

Working Paper
On the Real-Time Predictive Content of Financial Conditions Indices for Growth

We provide evidence on the real-time predictive content of the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), for conditional quantiles of U.S. real GDP growth. Our work is distinct from the literature in two specific ways. First, we construct (unofficial) real-time vintages of the NFCI. This allows us to conduct out-of-sample analysis without introducing the kind of look-ahead biases that are naturally introduced when using a single current vintage. We then develop methods for conducting asymptotic inference on tests of equal tick loss between nested quantile regression models when the data are ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-003

How Job Separations Differed between the Great Recession and COVID-19 Recession

Both the Great Recession and the COVID-19 recession created huge shocks to the U.S. labor market. But job separation rates hit income groups differently during the two downturns.
On the Economy

Market-Based Measures of Inflation Risks

Forecasts typically focus on estimates of expected inflation, but some forecasts look at the probability of different inflation rates in the future.
On the Economy

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