Search Results
Journal Article
Unintended Consequences of Coronavirus-Related Unemployment Insurance Tax Laws
Waived employer payroll tax increases for state unemployment insurance appear to have increased layoffs.
Working Paper
Growth-at-Risk is Investment-at-Risk
We investigate the role financial conditions play in the composition of U.S. growth-at-risk. We document that, by a wide margin, growth-at-risk is investment-at-risk. That is, if financial conditions indicate U.S. real GDP growth will be in the lower tail of its conditional distribution, we know that the main contributor is a decline in investment. Consumption contributes under extreme financial stress. Government spending and net exports do not play a role. We show that leverage plays a key role in determining both consumption- and investment-at-risk, which provides support to the financial ...
Working Paper
On the Real-Time Predictive Content of Financial Conditions Indices for Growth
We provide evidence on the real-time predictive content of the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), for conditional quantiles of U.S. real GDP growth. Our work is distinct from the literature in two specific ways. First, we construct (unofficial) real-time vintages of the NFCI. This allows us to conduct out-of-sample analysis without introducing the kind of look-ahead biases that are naturally introduced when using a single current vintage. We then develop methods for conducting asymptotic inference on tests of equal tick loss between nested quantile regression models when the data are ...
Which Workers Have Been Most Affected by the COVID-19 Pandemic?
Occupations that earn less than $34,963 on average—such as cashiers, servers and janitors—accounted for 34% of the increase in unemployment from January to April.
The St. Louis Fed's Financial Stress Index, Version 2.0
The St. Louis Fed's financial stress index has been recalibrated to better capture evolving stresses in financial markets.
Price Volatility and Headline Inflation
Movements in “sticky prices”—items that show low price volatility—may indicate that recent swings in U.S. headline inflation are only temporary.
Working Paper
Growth-at-Risk is Investment-at-Risk
We investigate the role financial conditions play in the composition of U.S. growth-at-risk. We document that, by a wide margin, growth-at-risk is investment-at-risk. That is, if financial conditions indicate U.S. real GDP growth will be in the lower tail of its conditional distribution, we know that quantitatively, the main contributor is a decline in investment. Consumption contributes under extreme financial stress. Government spending and net exports do not play a role. We show that leverage plays a key role in determining both consumption- and investment at-risk, which provides support ...
Market-Based Measures of Inflation Risks
Forecasts typically focus on estimates of expected inflation, but some forecasts look at the probability of different inflation rates in the future.
Journal Article
Which Earnings Groups Have Been Most Affected by the COVID-19 Crisis?
When the pandemic caused unemployment to skyrocket, the lowest earners were the hardest hit.
Working Paper
Growth-at-Risk is Investment-at-Risk
We investigate the role financial conditions play in the composition of U.S. growth-at-risk. We document that, by a wide margin, growth-at-risk is investment-at-risk. That is, if financial conditions indicate U.S. real GDP growth will be in the lower tail of its conditional distribution, we know that the main contributor is a decline in investment. Consumption contributes under extreme financial stress. Government spending and net exports do not play a role.