The Evolution of the Job Finding Rate during the COVID-19 Recession
Birinci, Serdar; Amburgey, Aaron; Trần, Ngân (2021-09-28)
The unusual nature of the COVID-19 recession appears to have masked the severity of the downturn’s impact on the rate at which unemployed workers found jobs.
On the Economy

The St. Louis Fed's Financial Stress Index, Version 2.0
Amburgey, Aaron; Kliesen, Kevin L.; McCracken, Michael W.; Bokun, Kathryn (2020-03-26)
The St. Louis Fed's financial stress index has been recalibrated to better capture evolving stresses in financial markets.
On the Economy

How COVID-19 May Be Affecting Inflation
McCracken, Michael W.; Amburgey, Aaron (2021-02-02)
U.S. consumer spending patterns have changed during the pandemic, and that may be affecting the measurement of inflation.
On the Economy

Inflation Expectations and the Fed’s New Monetary Framework
McCracken, Michael W.; Amburgey, Aaron (2021-07-08)
Markets are expecting higher inflation in coming years, which could test the Fed’s new strategy of flexible average inflation targeting.
On the Economy

Which Workers Have Been Most Affected by the COVID-19 Pandemic?
Birinci, Serdar; Amburgey, Aaron (2020-07-30)
Occupations that earn less than $34,963 on average—such as cashiers, servers and janitors—accounted for 34% of the increase in unemployment from January to April.
On the Economy

COVID-19’s Effects on Dual-Earner Households
Birinci, Serdar; Amburgey, Aaron (2021-05-04)
COVID-19 affected all corners of the labor market, but households in the lowest-earning occupations had worse employment outcomes.
On the Economy

Market-Based Measures of Inflation Risks
McCracken, Michael W.; Amburgey, Aaron (2021-03-24)
Forecasts typically focus on estimates of expected inflation, but some forecasts look at the probability of different inflation rates in the future.
On the Economy

Working Paper
On the Real-Time Predictive Content of Financial Conditions Indices for Growth
McCracken, Michael W.; Amburgey, Aaron (2022-06-03)
We provide evidence on the real-time predictive content of the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), for conditional quantiles of U.S. real GDP growth. Our work is distinct from the literature in two specific ways. First, we construct (unofficial) real-time vintages of the NFCI. This allows us to conduct out-of-sample analysis without introducing the kind of look-ahead biases that are naturally introduced when using a single current vintage. We then develop methods for conducting asymptotic inference on tests of equal tick loss between nested quantile regression models when the data are ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-003

Journal Article
Which Earnings Groups Have Been Most Affected by the COVID-19 Crisis?
Amburgey, Aaron; Birinci, Serdar (2020-07-14)
When the pandemic caused unemployment to skyrocket, the lowest earners were the hardest hit.
Economic Synopses , Issue 37

Journal Article
Unintended Consequences of Coronavirus-Related Unemployment Insurance Tax Laws
Amburgey, Aaron; Birinci, Serdar (2020-04-17)
Waived employer payroll tax increases for state unemployment insurance appear to have increased layoffs.
Economic Synopses , Issue 21