Search Results
Working Paper
The efficiency and welfare effects of tax reform: are fewer tax brackets better than more?
Using the well-known dynamic fiscal policy framework pioneered by Auerbach and Kotlikoff, we examine the efficiency and welfare implications of shifting from a linear marginal tax rate structure to a discrete rate structure characterized by two regions of flat tax rates of 15 and 28 percent. For a wide range of parameter values, we find that there is no sequence of lump-sum transfers that the (model) government can feasibly implement to make the shift from the linear to the discrete structure Pareto-improving. We conclude that the worldwide trend toward replacing rate structures having many ...
Journal Article
Is China's economy losing its luster?
Working Paper
Computable general-equilibrium models and monetary policy advice
An argument that variations of extant general-equilibrium monetary models can generate real-time economic forecasts comparable in accuracy to those contained in the Federal Reserve Board's "Greenbook" briefing documents.
Journal Article
Making sense of the Moynihan gambit: a perspective on the social security debate
An analysis of the subtle economic issues at the heart of U.S. Senator Moynihan's proposal to slash Social Security taxes, based on an examination of the nature of the Social Security system itself and whether it is more like a pension plan or a tax and transfer system.
Journal Article
Dollarization and monetary sovereignty: the case of Argentina
In January, President Menim of Argentina proposed strengthening his country's commitment to monetary stability by replacing the peso with the U.S. dollar. Dollarization leaves Argentina without a lender of last resort, but the Federal Reserve's current operating procedure combines with existing Argentine arrangements to mitigate this drawback.
Journal Article
Fiscal policy and fickle fortunes: what’s luck got to do with it?
The author contends that luck has played a major role in the fiscal fortunes of the 1990s. He (along with many others) is therefore concerned about the unquestioned presumption that projected budget surpluses are as good as achieved. Such a presumption, he says, is a shaky foundation from which to launch major new budget initiatives.
Working Paper
Pandemic-Era Uncertainty on Main Street and Wall Street
We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty in the U.S. economy. First, equity market traders and executives of nonfinancial firms share similar assessments about uncertainty at one-year lookahead horizons. That is, the one-year VIX has moved similarly to our survey-based measure of (average) firm-level subjective uncertainty at one-year forecast horizons. Second, looking within the distribution of beliefs in the SBU reveals that firm-level expectations shifted towards upside risk in the latter part of 2020. In this ...
Conference Paper
Inflation, personal taxes, and real output: a dynamic analysis