Search Results
Working Paper
Do falling iceberg costs explain recent U.S. export growth?
We study empirically and theoretically the growth of U.S. manufacturing exports from 1987 to 2007. We identify the change in iceberg costs with plant-level data on the intensity of exporting by exporters. Given this change in iceberg costs, we find that a GE model with heterogeneous establishments and a sunk cost of starting to export is consistent with both aggregate U.S. export growth and the changes in the number and size of U.S. exporters. The model also captures the non-linear dynamics of U.S. export growth. A model without a sunk export cost generates substantially less trade growth and ...
Working Paper
The great trade collapse of 2008-2009: an inventory adjustment?
This paper examines the role of inventories in the decline of production, trade, and expenditures in the US in the economic crisis of late 2008 and 2009. Empirically, the authors show that international trade declined more drastically than trade-weighted production or absorption and there was a sizeable inventory adjustment. This is most clearly evident for autos, the industry with the largest drop in trade. However, relative to the magnitude of the US downturn, these movements in trade are quite typical. The authors develop a two-country general equilibrium model with endogenous inventory ...
Working Paper
Microeconomic uncertainty, international trade, and aggregate fluctuations
The extent and direction of causation between micro volatility and business cycles are debated. We examine, empirically and theoretically, the source and effects of fluctuations in the dispersion of producer-level sales and production over the business cycle. On the theoretical side, we study the expect of exogenous first- and second-moment shocks to producer-level productivity in a two-country DSGE model with heterogeneous producers and an endogenous dynamic export participation decision. First-moment shocks cause endogenous fluctuations in producer-level dispersion by reallocating ...
Working Paper
Inventories, lumpy trade, and large devaluations
Fixed transaction costs and delivery lags are important costs of international trade. These costs lead firms to import infrequently and hold substantially larger inventories of imported goods than domestic goods. Using multiple sources of data, we document these facts. We then show that a parsimoniously parameterized model economy with importers facing an (S, s)-type inventory management problem successfully accounts for these features of the data. Moreover, the model can account for import and import price dynamics in the aftermath of large devaluations. In particular, desired inventory ...
Journal Article
Understanding exports from the plant up
Some companies export their products abroad, while others choose to sell only in their home market. Similarly, over time, some nonexporters become exporters and some exporters stop exporting. The decision to export is a big, important decision for an organization, one that takes time and resources but one that can lead to an expansion of sales and profits. Policymakers recognize that although exporting isn?t easy, it can boost sales and create jobs when successful. To help in this process, many states devote substantial resources to encouraging exports, including loans, trade missions, and ...
Journal Article
Why are goods so cheap in some countries?
Looking around the world, we observe substantial differences across countries in prices for most goods. These price differences also tend to be positively correlated with income differences, so that citizens of high-income countries tend to pay more for the same goods than citizens in low-income countries. In ?Why Are Goods So Cheap in Some Countries?,? George Alessandria and Joseph Kaboski summarize some of the evidence related to the big price differences across countries for a broad set of goods. They then discuss the relationship between prices and income levels and some possible ...
Working Paper
Export dynamics in large devaluations
We study the source and consequences of sluggish export dynamics in emerging markets following large devaluations. We document two main features of exports that are puzzling for standard trade models. First, given the change in relative prices, exports tend to grow gradually following a devaluation. Second, high interest rates tend to suppress exports. To address these features of export dynamics, we embed a model of endogenous export participation due to sunk and per period export costs into an otherwise standard small open economy. In response to shocks to productivity, the interest rate, ...
Working Paper
Trade wedges, inventories, and international business cycles
The large, persistent fluctuations in international trade that cannot be explained in standard models by changes in expenditures and relative prices are often attributed to trade wedges. We show that these trade wedges can reflect the decisions of importers to change their inventory holdings. We find that a two-country model of international business cycles with an inventory management decision can generate trade flows and wedges consistent with the data. Moreover, matching trade flows alters the international transmission of business cycles. Specifically, real net exports become ...
Working Paper
Trade and the (dis)incentive to reform labor markets: the case of reform in the European Union.
In a closed economy general equilibrium model, Hopenhayn and Rogerson (1993) find large welfare gains to removing firing restrictions. We explore the extent to which international trade alters this result. When economies trade, labor market policies in one country spill over to other countries through a change in the terms of trade. This reduces the incentive to reform labor markets. In a policy game over firing taxes between countries, we find that countries optimally choose positive levels of firing taxes. A coordinated elimination of firing taxes yields considerable benefits. This insight ...
Journal Article
The exchange rate: what's in it for prices?
Large movements in the exchange rate are quite common, and they substantially alter one's purchasing power when traveling abroad. Yet these exchange rate movements tend to have a smaller impact on the price of foreign goods that are imported. Following an appreciation of the euro against the dollar, European firms selling products to American firms for import do not raise their prices by nearly as much as the prices they charge consumers in the European market. Similarly, American firms sell their products at higher prices in Europe than at home. This incomplete, or partial, pass-through of ...