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Discussion Paper
Do Big Cities Help College Graduates Find Better Jobs?
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2013-05-20)
Although the unemployment rate of workers with a college degree has remained well below average since the Great Recession, there is growing concern that college graduates are increasingly underemployed?that is, working in a job that does not require a college degree or the skills acquired through their chosen field of study. Our recent New York Fed staff report indicates that one important factor affecting the ability of workers to find jobs that match their skills is where they look for a job. In particular, we show that looking for a job in big cities, which have larger and thicker local ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130520

Discussion Paper
Businesses in the Tri-State Region Struggling to Weather the Coronavirus Outbreak
Abel, Jaison R.; Bram, Jason; Deitz, Richard (2020-03-30)
As a result of the coronavirus outbreak, New York State, New Jersey, and Connecticut have closed nonessential businesses and schools and asked residents to stay home in an effort to slow the spread of the virus. These actions are unprecedented, and the economic impacts are likely to be temporary but severe, and difficult to track and measure. With conditions changing so rapidly, timely data on the economic impacts of the outbreak and resultant policies on businesses and people are both scarce and important. In this post, we provide some very recent information on the economic effects of the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200330a

Discussion Paper
Where Are Manufacturing Jobs Coming Back?
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2019-02-06)
As we outlined in our previous post, the United States lost close to sixmillion manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2010 but since then has gained back almost one million. In this post, we take a closer look at the geographic dimension of this modest rebound in manufacturing jobs. While job losses during the 2000s were fairly widespread across the country, manufacturing employment gains since then have been concentrated in particular parts of the country. Indeed, these gains were especially large in ?auto alley??a narrow motor vehicle production corridor stretching from Michigan south to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190206b

Discussion Paper
The Regional Economy during the Pandemic
Abel, Jaison R.; Bram, Jason; Deitz, Richard; Hastings, Jonathan (2020-12-02)
The New York-Northern New Jersey region experienced an unprecedented downturn earlier this year, one more severe than that of the nation, and the region is still struggling to make up the ground that was lost. That is the key takeaway at an economic press briefing held today by the New York Fed examining economic conditions during the pandemic in the Federal Reserve’s Second District. Despite the substantial recovery so far, business activity, consumer spending, and employment are all still well below pre-pandemic levels in much of the region, and fiscal pressures are mounting for state and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20201202

Discussion Paper
Firms’ Inflation Expectations Have Picked Up
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard; Hyman, Benjamin (2025-03-05)
After a period of particularly high inflation following the pandemic recession, inflationary pressures have been moderating the past few years. Indeed, the inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index has come down from a peak of 9.1 percent in the summer of 2022 to 3 percent at the beginning of 2025. The New York Fed asked regional businesses about their own cost and price increases in February, as well as their expectations for future inflation. Service firms reported that business cost and selling price increases continued to moderate through 2024, while manufacturing firms ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250305

Discussion Paper
The Tri-State Region’s Recovery from the Pandemic Recession Three Years On
Bram, Jason; Hastings, Jonathan; Deitz, Richard; Abel, Jaison R. (2023-04-13)
The tri-state region’s economy was hit especially hard by the pandemic, but three years on, is close to recovering the jobs that were lost. Indeed, employment initially fell by 20 percent in New York City as the pandemic took hold, a significantly sharper decline than for the nation as a whole, and the rest of the region experienced similar declines, creating a much larger hole than in other parts of the country. Three years later, the recovery has been uneven: Recent job growth has been particularly strong in New York City, where employment remains just slightly below pre-pandemic levels, ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230413a

Discussion Paper
Upstate New York Job Growth: The Bad News Is that the Good News Was Wrong
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2016-03-25)
In 2015, upstate New York looked to be having its strongest job growth in years. Employment was estimated to be growing at around one percent—below the national pace, but twice the region's trend growth rate since the end of the Great Recession. Buffalo, in particular, looked to be gaining significant numbers of construction and manufacturing jobs for the first time in decades, pushing it to its highest job growth since the late 1990s. Unfortunately, the good news was wrong. Annual benchmark revisions to New York State's employment data released in early March cut upstate's growth rate in ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160325

Discussion Paper
Firms’ Inflation Expectations Return to 2024 Levels
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard; Montalbano, Nick (2026-03-04)
Businesses experienced substantial cost pressures in 2025 as the cost of insurance and utilities rose sharply, while an increase in tariffs contributed to rising goods and materials costs. This post examines how firms in the New York-Northern New Jersey region adjusted their prices in response to these cost pressures and describes their expectations for future price increases and inflation. Survey results show an acceleration in firms’ price increases in 2025, with an especially sharp increase in the manufacturing sector. While both cost and price increases intensified last year, our ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20260304c

Discussion Paper
The Region’s Job Rebound from Superstorm Sandy
Deitz, Richard; Bram, Jason; Orr, James A.; Abel, Jaison R. (2013-03-11)
Last October, Superstorm Sandy caused widespread destruction and massive disruptions to the regional economy, not to mention the lives of millions of residents. More than three months later, many people remain displaced, and some are still struggling to rebuild their homes, businesses, and lives. Despite these setbacks, the process of economic recovery in the region appears to be well underway, boosted by the beginning of the cleanup and restoration process. In this post, we take an initial look at the adverse impact Sandy has had on the region?s jobs, describing the nature and extent of the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130311

Discussion Paper
Supply Chain Disruptions Have Eased, But Remain a Concern
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2024-05-20)
Supply chain disruptions became a major headache for businesses in the aftermath of the pandemic. Indeed, in October 2021, nearly all firms in our regional business surveys reported at least some difficulty obtaining the supplies they needed. These supply chain disruptions were a key contributor to the surge in inflation that occurred as the economy recovered from the pandemic recession. In this post, we present new measures of supply availability from our Business Leaders Survey and Empire State Manufacturing Survey that closely track the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240520

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