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COVID-19 and Supply Chains: A Year of Evolving Disruption

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland regularly surveys a broad cross-section of businesses in the region it serves and convenes business advisory councils in eight of the region’s major metropolitan areas. The information collected through these surveys and conversations points to trends that are not yet apparent in the data and fills gaps in researchers’ understanding of our region’s economy. The information is helpful to Federal Reserve policymakers during their discussions about the nation’s monetary policy. Anecdotes herein have been edited for length and clarity.
Cleveland Fed District Data Brief , Paper 20210226

Large, Dominant Firms Depress Local Wages; Housing Costs Help Offset Lower Pay

Concern has increased about the ability of very large firms to exert market power and hold down wages in localities where they dominate.
Dallas Fed Economics

Whose Wages Are Falling Behind the Least amid Surging Inflation?

For a majority of workers, wages didn’t increase as fast as inflation in the 12 months ended in second quarter 2022. Here, we dig deeper to see how outcomes may have differed across groups of workers.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
Credit derivatives and risk management

The striking growth of credit derivatives suggests that market participants find them to be useful tools for risk management. This paper illustrates credit derivatives' value with three examples: a commercial bank using credit derivatives to manage loan portfolio risk; an investment bank using them to manage the risks of underwriting securities; and an investor, such as an insurance company, asset manager, or hedge fund, using them to align credit risk exposure with a desired credit risk profile. ; But credit derivatives pose risk-management challenges of their own; the author discusses five ...
Economic Review , Volume 92 , Issue Q4 , Pages 25-41

Journal Article
Southeast's social, economic structures suggest long-term economic boom

Economics Update , Issue Oct , Pages 2

Journal Article
Moderate growth expected for the nation, Southeast in 1996

Regional Update , Issue Oct , Pages 1-4

Working Paper
Model confidence sets for forecasting models

The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of forecasting models. An MCS is a set of models that is constructed so that it will contain the ?best? forecasting model, given a level of confidence. Thus, an MCS is analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The MCS acknowledges the limitations of the data so that uninformative data yield an MCS with many models, whereas informative data yield an MCS with only a few models. We revisit the empirical application in Stock and Watson (1999) and apply the MCS procedure to their set of inflation ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2005-07

Working Paper
Quantifying "Quantitative Tightening" (QT): How Many Rate Hikes Is QT Equivalent To?

How many interest rate hikes is quantitative tightening (QT) equivalent to? In this paper, I examine this question based on the preferred-habitat model in Vayanos and Vila (2021). I define the equivalence between rate hikes and QT such that they both have the same impact on the 10-year yield. Based on the model calibrated to fit the nominal Treasury data between 1999 and 2022, I show that a passive roll-off of $2.2 trillion over three years is equivalent to an increase of 29 basis points in the current federal funds rate at normal times. However, during a crisis period with risk aversion ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2022-8

Conference Paper
Credit allocation techniques and monetary policy : proceedings of a conference held at Melvin Village, New Hampshire, September 1973

Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 11 , Issue Sep

Working Paper
The dynamic between municipal revenue sources and the state-local relationship in New England

This working paper was written for the New England Public Policy Center?s third annual conference: ?The Dynamic between Municipal Revenue Sources and the State-Local Relationship in New England?. It relies on data from the U.S. Census to examine the dynamic between municipal revenues and the state-local relationship in New England. The analysis shows that?compared with the nation as a whole?municipal governments in New England rely very heavily on the property tax. They also have limited or no access to local-option revenues such as sales taxes, and they rely less on fees and other nontax ...
New England Public Policy Center Working Paper , Paper 08-1

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