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Working Paper
Investing in the Batteries and Vehicles of the Future: A View Through the Stock Market
A large number of companies operating in the EV and battery supply chain have listed on a major U.S. stock exchange in recent years. This paper investigates 1) how these companies’ stock returns are related to systematic risk factors that can explain movements in the stock market and 2) how these companies’ idiosyncratic returns are related to one another. To do so, I compile a unique data set of intradaily stock returns that spans the supply chain, including companies focused on the mining of battery and EV-related critical minerals, advanced battery technology, lithium-ion battery ...
Working Paper
Closer to One Great Pool? Evidence from Structural Breaks in Oil Price Differentials
We show that the oil market has become closer to "one great pool," in the sense that price differentials between crude oils of different qualities have generally become smaller over time. We document, in particular, that many of these quality-related differentials experienced a major structural break in or around 2008, after which there was a marked reduction in their means and, in many cases, volatilities. Several factors explain these shifts, including a growing ability of the global refinery sector to process lower-quality crude oil and the U.S. shale boom, which has unexpectedly boosted ...
Journal Article
Noteworthy: agriculture, Mexico, air traffic
Journal Article
Drilling Productivity in the United States: What Lies Beneath
We construct new measures of drilling productivity and find that productivity increased sixfold from the mid-2000s to early 2017. Gains in below-ground efficiency?the number of barrels produced per foot of drilled wells?have largely driven this increase in overall productivity. The large oil price declines during the Great Recession and from 2014 to 2016 also played a role. However, further large increases in productivity are unlikely absent additional improvements in technology or a subsequent large downturn in oil prices.
Working Paper
The Moderating Role of Green Energy and Energy-Innovation in Environmental Kuznets: Insights from Quantile-Quantile Analysis
The recent environmental challenges in Africa that emanated from global warming, human activity, limited access to electricity and overexploitation of natural resources have contributed to the growth of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the region. This paper empirically investigates the moderating role of green energy consumption and energy innovation in the environmental Kuznets curve for the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) region using data spanning from 1980 to 2018. Our threshold model found that at least 54 percent of the population needs access to energy innovation before the region could be ...
Working Paper
The Electric Ceiling: Limits and Costs of Full Electrification
Electrification is a centerpiece of global decarbonization efforts. Yet there are reasons to be skeptical of the inevitability, or at least the optimal pace, of the transition. We discuss several under-appreciated costs of full, or even deep, electrification. Consumer preferences can operate in favor of and in opposition to electrification goals; and electrification is likely to encounter physical and economic obstacles when it reaches some as-yet-unknown level. While we readily acknowledge the external benefits of decarbonization, we also explore several under-appreciated external costs. The ...
Journal Article
Disruptions to Russian Energy Supply Likely to Weigh on European Output
The Russia-Ukraine war and subsequent oil sanctions from European countries have substantially disrupted the supply of Russian oil and gas. We estimate the effects of these disruptions on European output and find that a decline in the Russian oil and gas supply in 2022 could lead to a sizable drop in European output over 2023–24, though the effect differs across countries and sectors .
Working Paper
Reasons Behind Words: OPEC Narratives and the Oil Market
We analyze the content of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) communications and whether it provides information to the crude oil market. To this end, we derive an empirical strategy which allows us to measure OPEC's public signal and test whether market participants find it credible. Using Structural Topic Models, we analyze OPEC narratives and identify several topics related to fundamental factors, such as demand, supply, and speculative activity in the crude oil market. Importantly, we find that OPEC communication reduces oil price volatility and prompts market ...
Working Paper
Reasons Behind Words: OPEC Narratives and the Oil Market
We analyze the content of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) communications and whether it provides information to the crude oil market. To this end, we derive an empirical strategy which allows us to measure OPEC's public signal and test whether market participants find it credible. Using Structural Topic Models, we analyze OPEC narratives and identify several topics related to fundamental factors, such as demand, supply, and speculative activity in the crude oil market. Importantly, we find that OPEC communication reduces oil price volatility and prompts market ...