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Discussion Paper
How the Fed Changes the Size of Its Balance Sheet
Leonard, Deborah; Martin, Antoine; Potter, Simon M.
(2017-07-10)
The size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet increased greatly between 2009 and 2014 owing to large-scale asset purchases. The balance sheet has stayed at a high level since then through the ongoing reinvestment of principal repayments on securities that the Fed holds. When the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decides to reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, it is expected to do so by gradually reducing the pace of reinvestments, as outlined in the June 2017 addendum to the FOMC’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans. How do asset purchases increase the size of the ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20170710
Discussion Paper
Why Are Interest Rates So Low?
Cocci, Matthew; Shahanaghi, Sara; Giannoni, Marc; Del Negro, Marco; Smith, Micah
(2015-05-20)
In a recent series of blog posts, the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve System, Ben Bernanke, has asked the question: 'Why are interest rates so low?' (See part 1, part 2, and part 3.) He refers, of course, to the fact that the U.S. government is able to borrow at an annualized rate of around 2 percent for ten years, or around 3 percent for thirty years. If you expect that inflation is going to be on average 2 percent over the next ten or thirty years, this implies that the U.S. government can borrow at real rates of interest between 0 and 1 percent at the ten- and thirty-year ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20150520
Discussion Paper
The Fed’s Balance Sheet Runoff: The Role of Levered NBFIs and Households
Cipriani, Marco; Clouse, James A.; Logan, Lorie; Martin, Antoine; Riordan, Will
(2022-04-12)
In a Liberty Street Economics post that appeared yesterday, we described the mechanics of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet “runoff” when newly issued Treasury securities are purchased by banks and money market funds (MMFs). The same mechanics would largely hold true when mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are purchased by banks. In this post, we show what happens when newly issued Treasury securities are purchased by levered nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs)—such as hedge funds or nonbank dealers—and by households.
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20220412
Report
Coarse Pricing Policies
Stevens, Luminita
(2015-11-23)
The puzzling behavior of inflation in the Great Recession and its aftermath has increased the need to better understand the constraints that firms face when setting prices. Using new data and theory, I demonstrate that each firm's choice of how much information to acquire to set prices determines aggregate price dynamics through the patterns of pricing at the micro level, and through the large heterogeneity in pricing policies across firms. Viewed through this lens, the behavior of prices in recent years becomes less puzzling, as firms endogenously adjust their information acquisition ...
Staff Report
, Paper 520
Discussion Paper
The Post-Pandemic r*
Baker, Katie; Casey, Logan; Del Negro, Marco; Gleich, Aidan; Nallamotu, Ramya
(2023-08-09)
The debate about the natural rate of interest, or r*, sometimes overlooks the point that there is an entire term structure of r* measures, with short-run estimates capturing current economic conditions and long-run estimates capturing more secular factors. The whole term structure of r* matters for policy: shorter run measures are relevant for gauging how restrictive or expansionary current policy is, while longer run measures are relevant when assessing terminal rates. This two-post series covers the evolution of both in the aftermath of the pandemic, with today’s post focusing especially ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20230809
Working Paper
Even Keel and the Great Inflation
Mukherjee, Sanchita; Humpage, Owen F.; Consolvo, Victoria
(2020-10-23)
During the early part of the Great Inflation (1965-1975), the Federal Reserve undertook even-keel operations to assist the US Treasury’s coupon security sales. Accordingly, the central bank delayed any tightening of monetary policy and permanently injected reserves into the banking system. Using real-time Taylor-type and McCallum-like reaction functions, we show that the Fed routinely undertook these operations only when it was otherwise tightening monetary policy. Using a quantity-equation framework, we show that the Federal Reserve’s even-keel actions added approximately one percentage ...
Working Papers
, Paper 20-33
Discussion Paper
The New Overnight Bank Funding Rate
Cipriani, Marco; Spiegel, Adam; Kessler, Matthew; Gouny, Julia
(2015-11-09)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will begin publishing the overnight bank funding rate (OBFR) sometime in the first few months of 2016. The OBFR will be a broad measure of U.S. dollar funding costs for U.S.-based banks as it will be calculated using both fed funds and Eurodollar transactions, as reported in a new data collection?the FR 2420 Report of Selected Money Market Rates. In a recent post, ?The Eurodollar Market in the United States,? we described the Eurodollar activity of U.S.-based banks and compared recent fed funds and Eurodollar rates. Here, we look at the historical ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20151109
Working Paper
Macroeconomic Dynamics Near the ZLB : A Tale of Two Countries
Schorfheide, Frank; Cuba-Borda, Pablo A.; Aruoba, S. Boragan
(2016-05)
We compute a sunspot equilibrium in an estimated small-scale New Keynesian model with a zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on nominal interest rates and a full set of stochastic fundamental shocks. In this equilibrium a sunspot shock can move the economy from a regime in which inflation is close to the central bank's target to a regime in which the central bank misses its target, inflation rates are negative, and interest rates are close to zero with high probability. A nonlinear filter is used to examine whether the U.S. in the aftermath of the Great Recession and Japan in the late 1990s ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1163
Working Paper
Forward Guidance: Communication, Commitment, or Both?
Bassetto, Marco
(2019-07-25)
A policy of forward guidance has been suggested either as a form of commitment ("Odyssean") or as a way of conveying information to the public ("Delphic"). I analyze the strategic interaction between households and the central bank as a game in which the central bank can send messages to the public independently of its actions. In the absence of private information, the set of equilibrium payoffs is independent of the announcements of the central bank: forward guidance as a pure commitment mechanism is a redundant policy instrument. When private information is present, central bank ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper WP-2019-5
Discussion Paper
Who’s Borrowing and Lending in the Fed Funds Market Today?
Afonso, Gara; Cisternas, Gonzalo; Gowen, Brian; Miu, Jason; Younger, Josh
(2023-10-10)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) communicates the stance of monetary policy through a target range for the federal funds rate, which is the rate set in the market for uncollateralized short-term lending and borrowing of central bank reserves in the U.S. Since the global financial crisis, the market for federal funds has changed markedly. In this post, we take a closer look at who is currently trading in the federal funds market, as well as the reasons for their participation.
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20231010
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agency commercial mortgage-backed securities (agency CMBS) 1 items
alternative data 1 items
asset backed securities 1 items
asset pricing 1 items
asymmetric credit allocation 1 items
asymmetric information 1 items
automobiles 1 items
aversion 1 items
balance of payments 1 items
balance sheet costs 1 items
balance sheet runoff 1 items
bank failures 1 items
bank loans 1 items
bank performance 1 items
banking regulations 1 items
beta 1 items
between-sector effect 1 items
bills only 1 items
bimetallism 1 items
bond yields 1 items
bonds 1 items
branches 1 items
bubbles 1 items
budget deficits 1 items
capital intensity 1 items
central bank 1 items
central bank collateral and counterparties 1 items
central bank digital currencies 1 items
central bank’s balance sheet 1 items
classification 1 items
commodity money 1 items
commodity prices 1 items
coordination 1 items
coronavirus 1 items
corporate bond market conditions 1 items
corporate bond market distress 1 items
corporate bond oustading 1 items
counterfactual VAR 1 items
credit allocation 1 items
credit cycle crisis 1 items
credit reallocation 1 items
credit relationships 1 items
credit reports 1 items
credit scoring 1 items
crises 1 items
cross-guarantee 1 items
crowding out 1 items
cryptoassets 1 items
cryptocurrencies 1 items
currencies 1 items
currency mismatch 1 items
currency returns 1 items
data 1 items
debt management 1 items
debt-to-GDP ratio 1 items
debts 1 items
demographics 1 items
deposits 1 items
depression 1 items
digital innovation 1 items
direct purchases 1 items
dynamic factor models 1 items
economic downturn 1 items
economic history 1 items
economic outlook 1 items
economy 1 items
effective fed funds rate 1 items
emergency budget 1 items
emerging market equities 1 items
endogenous regime switching 1 items
entrusted loans 1 items
euro-denominated money market funds 1 items
even-keel 1 items
exchange mechanism 1 items
exchange rate stabilization 1 items
expectations 1 items
experimental economics 1 items
facilities 1 items
factor-augmented VARs 1 items
federal funds market 1 items
federal reserve system 1 items
financial crises 1 items
financial markets 1 items
fire sale 1 items
fiscal multipliers 1 items
fiscal shocks 1 items
fixed exchange rates 1 items
flight-to-quality 1 items
foreign institutions 1 items
frequency-dependence 1 items
fx 1 items
global asset prices 1 items
global games 1 items
global risk aversion 1 items
global systemically important banks (GSIBs) 1 items
gold 1 items
government debt 1 items
growth 1 items
growth expectations 1 items
growth rates 1 items
growth volatility 1 items
heavy GDP 1 items
heavy and light sectors 1 items
heavy loans 1 items
heavy versus light sectors 1 items
high-frequency identification 1 items
hoarding 1 items
household debt 1 items
illiqudity 1 items
imperfect information 1 items
import prices 1 items
impossibility theorem 1 items
inattention 1 items
incentive compatibility 1 items
incomplete credit markets 1 items
industrial supplies 1 items
industrialization 1 items
inflation dynamics 1 items
inflation expectation 1 items
inflation target 1 items
information choice 1 items
infrastructure investment 1 items
insolvency 1 items
institutional asymmetry 1 items
interest rate dispersion 1 items
interest rate parity condition 1 items
intermediation 1 items
international capital flows 1 items
international monetary policy 1 items
international role 1 items
invasion of Ukraine 1 items
inventories 1 items
investment 1 items
labor force 1 items
labor share 1 items
labor supply 1 items
land prices 1 items
large banks 1 items
large-scale asset purchases 1 items
lending frictions 1 items
lending standards 1 items
leverage rule 1 items
liquidity buffer 1 items
liquidity coverage ratio 1 items
liquidity preference 1 items
liquidity provision 1 items
liquidity shocks 1 items
local governments 1 items
long-term versus short-term loans 1 items
low interest rates 1 items
macroeconomic forecasts 1 items
macroeconomic policy 1 items
managed float 1 items
market expectations 1 items
market function purchases 1 items
market functioning 1 items
market liquidity 1 items
market structure 1 items
marketized tools 1 items
mechanism design 1 items
minutes 1 items
model combination 1 items
model uncertainty 1 items
monetary non-neutrality 1 items
monetary policy framework 1 items
monetary policy framework: pre-crisis 1 items
monetary policy standard 1 items
monetary stimulus 1 items
monetary unions 1 items
money market funds 1 items
money market funds (MMFs) 1 items
money market mutual funds (MMF) 1 items
money markets 1 items
mortgage-backed securities 1 items
mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market 1 items
multiple steady states 1 items
negative natural rate 1 items
net capital inflows 1 items
net income 1 items
non-state contingent nominal contracts 1 items
nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) 1 items
nonbank lending 1 items
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