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Working Paper
The Incredible Taylor Principle
Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés; Nicolini, Juan Pablo
(2022-01-28)
This note addresses the role of the Taylor principle to solve the indeterminacy of equilibria in economies in which the monetary authority follows an interest rate rule. We first study the role of imposing two additional ad-hoc restrictions on the definition of equilibrium. Imposing the equilibrium to be locally unique never delivers a unique outcome. Imposing the equilibrium to be bounded, renders the outcome unique only if the inflation target is the Friedman rule. Second, we show that the Taylor principle is strongly time inconsistent - in a sense we make very precise - and that policies ...
Working Papers
, Paper 790
Working Paper
Retail Central Bank Digital Currencies: Implications for Banking and Financial Stability
Infante, Sebastian; Kim, Kyungmin; Orlik, Anna; Silva, André F.; Tetlow, Robert J.
(2023-11-20)
This paper reviews the literature examining how the introduction of a retail CBDC would affect the banking sector and financial stability. A CBDC has the potential to improve welfare by reducing financial frictions, countering market power in deposit markets and enhancing the payment system. However, a CBDC also entails noteworthy risks, including the possibility of bank disintermediation and associated contraction in bank credit, as well as potential adverse effects on financial stability. The recycling of the new CBDC liability through asset purchases or lending by the central bank plays ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2023-072
Working Paper
Monetary policy and the corporate bond market: How important is the Fed information effect?
Smolyansky, Michael; Suarez, Gustavo A.
(2021-02-16)
Does expansionary monetary policy drive up prices of risky assets? Or, do investors interpret monetary policy easing as a signal that economic fundamentals are weaker than they previously believed, prompting riskier asset prices to fall? We test these competing hypotheses within the U.S. corporate bond market and find evidence strongly in favor of the second explanation—known as the "Fed information effect". Following an unanticipated monetary policy tightening (easing), returns on corporate bonds with higher credit risk outperform (underperform). We conclude that monetary policy surprises ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2021-010
Working Paper
On the Stability of Money Demand
Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Lucas, Robert E.
(2015-02-02)
We show that regulatory changes that occurred in the banking sector in the early eighties, which considerably weakened Regulation Q, can explain the apparent instability of money demand during the same period. We evaluate the effects of the regulatory changes using a model that goes beyond aggregates as M1 and treats currency and different deposit types as alternative means of payments. We use the model to construct a new monetary aggregate that performs remarkably well for the entire period 1915-2012.
Working Papers
, Paper 718
Working Paper
Bubbly Recessions
Hanson, Andrew; Phan, Toan; Biswas, Siddhartha
(2018-02-22)
We develop a tractable rational bubbles model with financial frictions, downward nominal wage rigidity, and the zero lower bound. The interaction of financial frictions and nominal rigidities leads to a "bubbly pecuniary externality," where competitive speculation in risky bubbly assets can result in excessive investment booms that precede inefficient busts. The collapse of a large bubble can push the economy into a "secular stagnation" equilibrium, where the zero lower bound and the nominal wage rigidity constraint bind, leading to a persistent and inefficient recession. We evaluate a ...
Working Paper
, Paper 18-5
Conference Paper
Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future : Economic Policy Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 25-27, 2016
Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank
(2016)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole
Working Paper
On the Negatives of Negative Interest Rates
Berentsen, Aleksander; van Buggenum, Hugo; Ruprecht, Romina
(2023-09-29)
Major central banks remunerate reserves at negative rates (NIR). To study thelong-run effects of NIR, we focus on the role of reserves as intertemporal stores of value that are used to settle interbank liabilities. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with commercial banks holding reserves and funding investments with retail deposits. In the long run, NIR distorts investment decisions, lowers welfare, depresses output, and reduces bank profitability. The type of distortion depends on the transmission of NIR to retail deposits. The availability of cash explains the asymmetric ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2023-064
Working Paper
International Dollar Flows
Banegas, Ayelen; Judson, Ruth; Sims, Charles; Stebunovs, Viktors
(2015-09-09)
Using confidential Federal Reserve data, we study the factors driving U.S. banknote flows between the United States and other countries. These flows are a significant component of capital flows in emerging market economies, where physical U.S. currency functions as a safe asset and precautionary demand for U.S. banknotes is a form of flight to quality. Prior to the global financial crisis, country-specific factors, including local economic uncertainty, largely explain the volume and heterogeneity of the flows. Since the crisis, global factors, particularly, global economic uncertainty, ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1144
Working Paper
The Financial (In)Stability Real Interest Rate, R**
Del Negro, Marco; Benigno, Gianluca; Akinci, Ozge; Queraltó, Albert
(2021-01-29)
We introduce the concept of financial stability real interest rate using a macroeconomic banking model with an occasionally binding financing constraint as in Gertler and Kiyotaki (2010). The financial stability interest rate, r**, is the threshold interest rate that triggers the constraint being binding. Increasing imbalances in the financial sector measured by an increase in leverage are accompanied by a lower threshold that could trigger financial instability events. We also construct a theoretical implied financial condition index and show how it is related to the gap between the natural ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1308
Working Paper
Deciphering Federal Reserve Communication via Text Analysis of Alternative FOMC Statements
Yang, Shu-Kuei X.; Song, Dongho; Doh, Taeyoung
(2020-10-06)
We apply a natural language processing algorithm to FOMC statements to construct a new measure of monetary policy stance, including the tone and novelty of a policy statement. We exploit cross-sectional variations across alternative FOMC statements to identify the tone (for example, dovish or hawkish), and contrast the current and previous FOMC statements released after Committee meetings to identify the novelty of the announcement. We then use high-frequency bond prices to compute the surprise component of the monetary policy stance. Our text-based estimates of monetary policy surprises are ...
Research Working Paper
, Paper RWP 20-14
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Tetlow, Robert J. 8 items
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