Report

Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics


Abstract: We estimate the evolution of the conditional joint distribution of economic and financial conditions. While the joint distribution is approximately Gaussian during normal periods, sharp tightenings of financial conditions lead to the emergence of additional modes. The U.S. economy has historically resolved quickly to the “good” mode, but we conjecture that poor policy choices could lead to prolonged periods of multimodality. We argue that multimodality arises naturally in a macro-financial intermediary model with occasionally binding intermediary constraints.

Keywords: nonparametric density estimator; density impulse response; multimodality;

JEL Classification: C14; E17; E37; G01;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Part of Series: Staff Reports

Publication Date: 2019-11-01

Number: 903

Note: Revised December 2020.