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Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Staff Reports
The Effects of the saving and banking glut on the U.S. economy
Alejandro Justiniano
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti
Abstract

We use a quantitative equilibrium model with houses, collateralized debt, and foreign borrowing to study the impact of global imbalances on the U.S. economy in the 2000s. Our results suggest that the dynamics of foreign capital flows account for between one-fourth and one-third of the increase in U.S. house prices and household debt that preceded the financial crisis. The key to these findings is that the model generates the sustained low level of interest rates observed over that period.


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Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, The Effects of the saving and banking glut on the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Staff Reports 648, 01 Oct 2013.
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Note: For a published version of this report, see Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri, and Andrea Tambalotti, "The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy," Journal of International Economics 92, s1 (April 2014): s52-67.
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Keywords: U.S. trade deficit; household debt
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