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We propose a measure for systemic risk, ΔCoVaR, defined as the difference between the conditional value at risk (CoVaR) of the financial system conditional on an institution being in distress and the CoVaR conditional on the median state of the institution. Our ΔCoVaR estimates show that characteristics such as leverage, size, maturity mismatch, and asset price booms significantly predict systemic risk contribution. We provide out-of-sample forecasts of a countercyclical, forward-looking measure of systemic risk and show that the 2006:Q4 value of this measure would have predicted more than one-third of realized ΔCoVaR during the financial crisis.
Cite this item
Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, CoVaR, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Staff Reports 348, 2008, revised 01 Sep 2014.
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
- G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
- G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
Keywords: value at risk; systemic risk; risk spillovers; financial architecture
This item with handle RePEc:fip:fednsr:348
is also listed on EconPapers
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