Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Monetary Policy in an Oil-Exporting Economy
The sudden collapse of oil prices poses a challenge to inflation-targeting central banks in oil-exporting economies. In this article, the authors illustrate this challenge and conduct a quantitative assessment of the impact of changes in oil prices in a small open economy in which oil represents an important fraction of its exports. They build a monetary, three-sector, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and estimate it for the Colombian economy. They model the oil sector as an optimal resource extracting problem and show that in oil-exporting economies the macroeconomic effects vary according to the degree of persistence of oil price shocks. The main channels through which these shocks pass to the economy come from the real exchange rate, the country risk premium, and sluggish price adjustments. Inflation-targeting central banks in such economies face a policy dilemma: raise the policy rate to fight increased inflation coming from the exchange rate passthrough or lower it to stimulate a slowing economy.
Cite this item
Franz Hamann & Jesús Bejarano & Diego Rodríguez & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, "Monetary Policy in an Oil-Exporting Economy"
, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Review, volume 98, issue 3, pages 239-61, 2016.
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This item with handle RePEc:fip:fedlrv:00063
is also listed on EconPapers
For corrections, contact Anna Oates ()