Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Common Fluctuations in OECD Budget Balances
The authors use a dynamic latent factor model to analyze comovements in OECD surpluses. The world factor underlying common fluctuations in budget surpluses across countries explains an average of 28 to 44 percent of the variation in individual country surpluses. The world factor, which can be interpreted as a global budget surplus index, declines substantially in the 1980s, rises throughout much of the 1990s, peaks in 2000, and declines again after the financial crisis of 2008. The authors then estimate similar world factors in national output gaps, dividend-to-price ratios, and military spending that significantly explain the variation in the world budget surplus factor. Idiosyncratic components of national budget surpluses correlate with well-known “unusual” country circumstances, such as the Swedish banking crisis of the early 1990s.
Cite this item
Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, "Common Fluctuations in OECD Budget Balances"
, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Review, volume 97, issue 2, pages 109-132, 2015.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
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