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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
The Regional Economist
Output and unemployment: how do they relate today?
Michael T. Owyang
E. Katarina Vermann
Tatevik Sekhposyan
Abstract

Fifty years ago, Arthur Okun examined the relationship between output growth and the unemployment rate. The empirical relationship of the resulting “Okun’s law” has remained largely intact since then, including during the Great Recession. However, while the law does fit our intuition about economic relationships, it should not necessarily be taken to be causal.


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Michael T. Owyang & E. Katarina Vermann & Tatevik Sekhposyan, "Output and unemployment: how do they relate today?" , Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, The Regional Economist, issue October, 2013.
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Keywords: Unemployment
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