How Much Would China’s GDP Respond to a Slowdown in Housing Activity?

Cook, Thomas R.; Nie, Jun; Smalter Hall, Aaron

Journal Article

How Much Would China’s GDP Respond to a Slowdown in Housing Activity?

Abstract: We analyze China's interindustry connections and show that China?s housing activity has become increasingly important to its GDP growth. Our results suggest that a 10 percent decline in final demand for real estate and housing-related construction would lead to a decline in total output of 2.2 percent, an effect more than two times larger than it would have been 10 years ago.

Keywords: real estate investments; China; Housing;

JEL Classification: G50;