Journal Article

As Manufacturing Weakens, Consumers Pull Back


Abstract: The United States has faced two recent downturns in manufacturing: one from 2014 to 2015 and one that has been ongoing since 2018. We examine consumption growth at the state level to see how consumers have responded to the current downturn relative to the last. We find that during the current downturn, changes in consumption growth at the state level have been negatively correlated with the state?s share of workers in manufacturing. In contrast, we find the opposite relationship during the 2014?15 downturn.

Keywords: Manufacturing; Consumption Growth; Consumers; Employment;

JEL Classification: E20;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Part of Series: Economic Bulletin

Publication Date: 2019-11-13

Pages: 3