Home About Latest Browse RSS Advanced Search

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Chicago Fed Letter
What Does Labor Market Tightness Tell Us About the End of an Expansion?
Scott A. Brave
David Kelley

We use a model based on the historical relationships between unemployment, inflation, and recessions, along with the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC),1 to examine the medium-term implications of current and projected unemployment rates for the U.S. economy. Our model predicts a low probability of a recession in the next two to three years based on SEP forecasts for additional labor market tightening over this horizon.

Download Full text
Cite this item
Scott A. Brave & David Kelley, "What Does Labor Market Tightness Tell Us About the End of an Expansion?" , Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed Letter, number 403, 2018.
More from this series
JEL Classification:
Subject headings:
Keywords: Labor market; inflation; unemployment; recessions; wages
DOI: 10.21033/cfl-2018-403
For corrections, contact Bernie Flores ()
Fed-in-Print is the central catalog of publications within the Federal Reserve System. It is managed and hosted by the Economic Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Privacy Legal