Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Chicago Fed Letter
What Does Labor Market Tightness Tell Us About the End of an Expansion?
We use a model based on the historical relationships between unemployment, inflation, and recessions, along with the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC),1 to examine the medium-term implications of current and projected unemployment rates for the U.S. economy. Our model predicts a low probability of a recession in the next two to three years based on SEP forecasts for additional labor market tightening over this horizon.
Cite this item
Scott A. Brave & David Kelley, "What Does Labor Market Tightness Tell Us About the End of an Expansion?"
, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed Letter, number 403, 2018.
Keywords: Labor market; inflation; unemployment; recessions; wages
This item with handle RePEc:fip:fedhle:00092
is also listed on EconPapers
For corrections, contact Bernie Flores ()