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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
FRBSF Economic Letter
Will the jobless rate drop take a break?
Mary C. Daly
Early Elias
Bart Hobijn
Òscar Jordà
Abstract

In January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly reduced its projections for medium-term labor force participation. The revision implies that recent participation declines have largely been due to long-term trends rather than business-cycle effects. However, as the economy recovers, some discouraged workers may return to the labor force, boosting participation beyond the Bureau’s forecast. Given current job creation rates, if workers who want a job but are not actively looking join the labor force, the unemployment rate could stop falling in the short term.>


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Mary C. Daly & Early Elias & Bart Hobijn & Òscar Jordà, "Will the jobless rate drop take a break?" , Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, FRBSF Economic Letter, number 37, 2012.
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Keywords: Unemployment ; Labor market
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