Journal Article

Riders on the Storm


Abstract: A country?s interest rate often reflects more than just the policy stance of its central bank. Movements in the global neutral rate of interest and the domestic neutral rate also play a significant role. Estimates from international models for Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States show that central bank policy explains less than half of the variation in interest rates. The rest of the time, the central bank is catching up to trends dictated by productivity growth, demographics, and other factors outside of its control.

Access Documents

File(s): File format is application/pdf https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/el2019-29.pdf
Description: Full text

Authors

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Part of Series: FRBSF Economic Letter

Publication Date: 2019

Order Number: 29