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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
FRBSF Economic Letter
Inflation: Stress-Testing the Phillips Curve
Oscar Jorda
Chitra Marti
Fernanda Nechio
Eric Tallman
Abstract

The well-known Phillips curve describes inflation as a persistent process that depends on public expectations of future inflation and economic slack, a measure of how stretched the economy’s resources are. The role of each component has changed over time. In particular, maintaining the public’s expectations that the Federal Reserve is committed to an inflation target of 2% has grown in importance over the slack component, in part because realigning expectations is costly to undo. Such considerations are important as the Federal Reserve evaluates its future policy options.


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Oscar Jorda & Chitra Marti & Fernanda Nechio & Eric Tallman, "Inflation: Stress-Testing the Phillips Curve" , Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, FRBSF Economic Letter, number 05, 2019.
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