Journal Article

Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve


Abstract: The term spread?the difference between long-term and short-term interest rates?is a strikingly accurate predictor of future economic activity. Every U.S. recession in the past 60 years was preceded by a negative term spread, that is, an inverted yield curve. Furthermore, a negative term spread was always followed by an economic slowdown and, except for one time, by a recession. While the current environment is somewhat special?with low interest rates and risk premiums?the power of the term spread to predict economic slowdowns appears intact.

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Part of Series: FRBSF Economic Letter

Publication Date: 2018

Order Number: 07