Journal Article

Revising the Texas index of leading indicators

Abstract: The Texas Leading Index (TLI), produced monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, combines eight measures that tend to anticipate changes in the Texas business cycle by about three to nine months.. ; The TLI was first published in the Dallas Fed?s Economic Review in July 1988. The index?s approaching 20th anniversary provides an apt occasion to review its real-time performance and look at ways it might be improved to keep up with the changing structure of the Texas economy and the availability of new data sources. ; We find that the TLI performed well in the one recession since 1990 and, used in a model forecasting Texas employment, has done well in real time when compared with other forecasts. Although the current version of the TLI works reasonably well, we suggest changes to the TLI that generally reflect the growing importance of services and globalization and the reduced importance of energy production in Texas business cycles.

Keywords: Forecasting; Index numbers (Economics); Economic indicators;

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Part of Series: Southwest Economy

Publication Date: 2007

Issue: Nov

Pages: 3-7

Order Number: 6