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Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Economic Commentary
Does the yield curve signal recession?
Joseph G. Haubrich

Experience has taught economic forecasters to expect a recession when the yield on short-term Treasury securities rises above the yield on longer-term securities—a situation known as a yield-curve inversion. But some economists suspect the yield curve might not be as reliable a predictor of output growth as it used to be.

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Joseph G. Haubrich, "Does the yield curve signal recession?" , Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary, issue Apr, 2006.
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Keywords: Recessions ; Economic forecasting ; Interest rates
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