Speech

Recession Revisited

Abstract: This has been called the most predicted recession in memory. Forecasts keep getting pushed out. No one banished the business cycle, so those who keep predicting a recession will eventually be right. But most recessions come suddenly. Some fear that the Fed’s commitment to reining in inflation will be that shock to the economy. To be sure, the Fed’s objective is not to cause a recession; it’s to reduce inflation, in line with our mandate. There is still a plausible story that inflation normalizes in short order and the economy dodges additional trauma. Certainly, last month’s inflation read was a good one and I hope it is a sign. As I talk to firms, I hear reasons to believe that — if a recession were to occur this time — it might be less severe.

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Part of Series: Speech

Publication Date: 2023-08-03