Discussion Paper

The Price of Tariffs on Fifth District Businesses

Abstract: December data from our monthly business surveys and fourth quarter data from The CFO Survey suggested that firms were optimistic about their own businesses and the overall economy going into 2025. This rise in optimism, however, was accompanied by several concerns. One concern was the potential for additional tariffs on imports. One way to gauge the potential impact of tariffs on firms — especially in December before there were more specifics about future tariff policy — was to gauge their international exposure. Most December survey respondents reported that they do not sell goods or services abroad; however, most source at least some of their inputs from abroad. Although some research finds tariffs to be temporarily inflationary, among our survey respondents, there was little evidence that international exposure is correlated with firm-level price expectations. Anecdotally, many survey respondents have seen or expect to see impacts from tariffs, but the extent, or even direction of the impact varied across respondents.

Keywords: tariffs; business surveys; Fifth District;

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Part of Series: Regional Matters

Publication Date: 2025-02-06