Discussion Paper

Fifth District State Business Cycles

Abstract: To model national and state business cycles, this post first explores fluctuations of payroll employment around its long-run trend, comparing the correlation of the state-level employment fluctuations to the national series. Second, it explores how a popular rule of thumb recession indicator, the Sahm Recession Rule, performs when applied to state-level data compared to national data during the past four economic downturns. Third, this analysis not only provides us with insight into states' historical relationships with the U.S. business cycle, but it also reveals how they might fare in future economic downturns.

Keywords: business cycles; 5th district; sahm rule;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Part of Series: Regional Matters

Publication Date: 2023-08-03