Fifth District State Business Cycles
Abstract: To model national and state business cycles, this post first explores fluctuations of payroll employment around its long-run trend, comparing the correlation of the state-level employment fluctuations to the national series. Second, it explores how a popular rule of thumb recession indicator, the Sahm Recession Rule, performs when applied to state-level data compared to national data during the past four economic downturns. Third, this analysis not only provides us with insight into states' historical relationships with the U.S. business cycle, but it also reveals how they might fare in future economic downturns.
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Description: Discussion Paper
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Part of Series: Regional Matters
Publication Date: 2023-08-03