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Predicting the Unemployment Rate in a Time of Coronavirus


Abstract: Economists forecast the unemployment rate all the time. Usually, though, they use data over the previous months and quarters to forecast the unemployment rate out several years. Since the relationships between the unemployment rate and things like GDP growth and employment are mostly stable over time, and since month-to-month movements in the unemployment rate are usually small, these forecasts usually work well.

Keywords: Covid-19; Unemployment; Coronavirus;

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Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Source: Midwest Economy Blog

Publication Date: 2020-04-07