Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information

RePEc Short ID: plu38
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6505-7807

Lubik, Thomas A.; Matthes, Christian; Mertens, Elmar

Working Paper

Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information

Abstract: We study equilibrium determination in an environment where two kinds of agents have different information sets: The fully informed agents know the structure of the model and observe histories of all exogenous and endogenous variables. The less informed agents observe only a strict subset of the full information set. All types of agents form expectations rationally, but agents with limited information need to solve a dynamic signal extraction problem to gather information about the variables they do not observe. We show that for parameter values that imply a unique equilibrium under full information, the limited information rational expectations equilibrium can be indeterminate. We illustrate our framework with a monetary policy problem where an imperfectly informed central bank follows an interest rate rule.

Keywords: Limited information; rational expectations; Kalman filter; belief shocks;

JEL Classification: C11; C32; E52;