Briefing
COVID-19 over Time and across States: Predictions from a Statistical Model
Abstract: We discuss a statistical time series model to capture and forecast the dynamics of COVID-19 in the fifty U.S. states and Washington, D.C. We design the model to replicate the typical pattern of infections during a pandemic. We rely on Bayesian methods, which provide a straightforward way to quantify the uncertainty surrounding our estimates and forecasts. In this brief, we focus on North Carolina and Washington, D.C., since they have experienced different trajectories of COVID-19 and may have different implications for the efficacy of our approach.
Keywords: Regional and Urban Economics;
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https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/economic_brief/2020/pdf/eb_20-10.pdf
Description: Article
Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Part of Series: Richmond Fed Economic Brief
Publication Date: 2020-09
Volume: 20
Issue: 10