Briefing
Aggregate or Structural? Diagnosing the Rise in Unemployment
Abstract: The decline in the job-finding rate is largest for strongly attached workers in occupations highly exposed to artificial intelligence, but this group is too small to drive the aggregate change on its own. A standard flows-based decomposition shows that less-exposed workers — both primary and secondary types — account for roughly half of the aggregate decline in the job-finding rate since mid-2023. AI exposure is an important but not dominant factor driving the decline in job-finding probability.
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https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2026/eb_26-27
Description: Briefing
Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Part of Series: Richmond Fed Economic Brief
Publication Date: 2026-08-19
Volume: 26
Issue: 27