Briefing

What Drives Business Cycles?


Abstract: There is no clear pattern as to whether inflation tends to rise or fall during recessions. The apparent lack of correlation masks the fact that inflation has in fact risen and fallen with GDP over individual business cycles. The inconsistent historical patterns wash out on average but suggest policymakers should use data to discern the underlying drivers of any specific business cycle.

Access Documents

File(s): File format is text/html https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2025/eb_25-37
Description: Briefing

Authors

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Part of Series: Richmond Fed Economic Brief

Publication Date: 2025-10-01

Volume: 25

Issue: 37