Working Paper
Lockdowns and Innovation: Evidence from the 1918 Flu Pandemic
Abstract: Does social distancing harm innovation? We estimate the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)—policies that restrict interactions in an attempt to slow the spread of disease—on local invention. We construct a panel of issued patents and NPIs adopted by 50 large US cities during the 1918 flu pandemic. Difference-in-differences estimates show that cities adopting longer NPIs did not experience a decline in patenting during the pandemic relative to short-NPI cities, and recorded higher patenting afterward. Rather than reduce local invention by restricting localized knowledge spillovers, NPIs adopted during the pandemic may have better preserved other inventive factors.
Keywords: Non-pharmaceutical interventions; public health; invention; patents; influenza;
JEL Classification: N92; O31; R11;
https://doi.org/10.21799/frbp.wp.2020.46
Access Documents
Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Part of Series: Working Papers
Publication Date: 2020-12-03
Number: 20-46