The Trade-Comovement Puzzle
Abstract: Standard international transmission mechanism of productivity shocks predicts a weak endogenous linkage between trade and business cycle synchronization: a problem known as the trade-comovement puzzle. We provide the foundational analysis of the puzzle, pointing to three natural candidate resolutions: i) financial market frictions; ii) Greenwood–Hercowitz–Huffman preferences; and iii) dynamic trade elasticity that is low in the short run but high in the long run. We show the effects of each of these candidate resolutions analytically and evaluate them quantitatively. We find that, while i) and ii) fall short of the data, iii) goes a long way toward resolving the puzzle.
File(s): File format is text/html https://philadelphiafed.org/-/media/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2020/wp20-01.pdf
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Part of Series: Working Papers
Publication Date: 2020-01-02
Note: Supercedes WP 17-42