Working Paper

Mortgage Loss Severities: What Keeps Them So High?


Abstract: Mortgage loss-given-default (LGD) increased significantly when house prices plummeted and delinquencies rose during the financial crisis, but it has remained over 40 percent in recent years despite a strong housing recovery. Our results indicate that the sustained high LGDs post-crisis are due to a combination of an overhang of crisis-era foreclosures and prolonged foreclosure timelines, which have offset higher sales recoveries. Simulations show that cutting foreclosure timelines by one year would cause LGD to decrease by 5?8 percentage points, depending on the trade-off between lower liquidation expenses and lower sales recoveries. Using difference-in-differences tests, we also find that recent consumer protection programs have extended foreclosure timelines and increased loss severities in spite of their benefits of increasing loan modifications and enhancing consumer protections.

Keywords: accelerated failure time model; Heckman two-stage correction; regulatory changes; foreclosure timelines; loss-given default (LGD);

JEL Classification: C24; G18; G21; G01; C41;

https://doi.org/10.21799/frbp.wp.2019.19

Access Documents

Authors

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Part of Series: Working Papers

Publication Date: 2019-03-19

Number: 19-19

Pages: 49 pages