Working Paper

Long-Run Trade Elasticity and the Trade-Comovement Puzzle


Abstract: We show that the trade-comovement puzzle - theory's failure to account for the positive relation between trade and business cycle synchronization - is intimately related to its counterfactual implication that short- and long-run trade elasticities are equal. Based on this insight, we show that modeling the disconnect between the low short- and the high long-run trade elasticity in consistency with the data is promising in resolving the puzzle. In a broader context, our findings are relevant for analyzing business cycle transmission in a large class of models and caution against the use of static elasticity models in cross-country studies.

Keywords: international business cycle synchronization; trade-comovement puzzle; elasticity puzzle;

JEL Classification: F31; E32;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Part of Series: Working Papers

Publication Date: 2017-11-22

Number: 17-42

Pages: 61 pages