Journal Article

Real-time performance of GDPplus and alternative model-based measures of GDP: 2005—2014

Abstract: Like most macroeconomic variables, real gross domestic product is subject to measurement error. Because the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis lacks complete information at the time it publishes its initial GDP estimates, revisions are often substantial. Analysts concerned about the accuracy of these early estimates for expenditure GDP could focus instead on gross domestic income, the BEA?s measure of U.S. output on the income side of the national accounts. Conceptually, GDP on the expenditure side should equal GDP on the income side, and there should be no choice to make between the two series. As a practical matter, however, the two measures can differ by a significant amount because each measure is constructed using ?largely independent? source data, which themselves are ?less than perfect? [BEA (2014)].

Keywords: GDPplus; Real-time data; GDP;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Part of Series: Research Rap Special Report

Publication Date: 2014

Issue: Nov

Order Number: 1