Predicting U.S. recessions: financial variables as leading indicators
Abstract: This article examines the performance of various financial variables as predictors of U.S. recessions. Series such as interest rates and spreads, stock prices, currencies, and monetary aggregates are evaluated individually and in comparison with other financial and non-financial indicators. The analysis focuses on out-of-sample performance from 1 to 8 quarters ahead. Results show that stock prices are useful with 1-3 quarter horizons, as are some well-known macroeconomic indicators. Beyond 1 quarter, however, the slope of the yield curve emerges as the clear individual choice and typically performs better by itself out of sample than in conjunction with other variables.
File(s): File format is text/html https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/research_papers/9609.html
File(s): File format is application/pdf https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/research_papers/9609.pdf
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Part of Series: Research Paper
Publication Date: 1996