Discussion Paper

Why Do Forecasters Disagree about Their Monetary Policy Expectations?


Abstract: While forecasters generally disagree about the expected path of monetary policy, the level of disagreement as measured in the New York Fed’s Survey of Primary Dealers (SPD) has increased substantially since 2022. For instance, the dispersion of expectations about the future path of the target federal funds rate (FFR) has widened significantly. What explains the current elevated disagreement in FFR forecasts?

Keywords: monetary policy; reaction functions; expectations; survey forecasts;

JEL Classification: E52;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Part of Series: Liberty Street Economics

Publication Date: 2023-08-02

Number: 20230802