Elevated Rent Expectations Continue to Pressure Low-Income Households

Haughwout, Andrew F.; Hyman, Benjamin; Lahey, Benjamin; Lall, Devon; Somerville, Jason

Discussion Paper

Elevated Rent Expectations Continue to Pressure Low-Income Households

Abstract: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 2023 SCE Housing Survey, released in April, reported some novel data about expectations for home prices, interest rates, and mortgage refinancing. While the data showed a sharp drop in home price expectations, some of the most notable findings concern renters. In this post, we take a deeper dive into how renters’ expectations and financial situations have evolved over the past year. We find that both owners and renters expect rents to rise rapidly over the next year, albeit at a slower pace than last year. Furthermore, we also show that eviction expectations rose sharply over the past twelve months, and that this increase was most pronounced for those in the lowest quartile of the income distribution.

Keywords: rent; eviction expectations;

JEL Classification: R31;