Have Consumers’ Long-Run Inflation Expectations Become Un-Anchored?

Armantier, Olivier; Boumahdi, Fatima; Goldman, Leo; Koşar, Gizem; Lu, Jessica; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert

Discussion Paper

Have Consumers’ Long-Run Inflation Expectations Become Un-Anchored?

Abstract: With the recent surge in inflation since the spring there has been an increase in consumers’ short-run (one-year ahead) and, to a lesser extent, medium-run (three-year ahead) inflation expectations (see Survey of Consumer Expectations). Although this rise in short- and medium-run inflation expectations is relevant for policymakers, it does not provide direct evidence about “un-anchoring” of long-run inflation expectations. Roughly speaking, inflation expectations are considered un-anchored when long-run inflation expectations change significantly in response to developments in inflation or other economic variables, and begin to move away from levels consistent with the central bank’s (implicit or explicit) inflation objective. In that case, actual inflation can become unmoored and risks drifting persistently away from the central bank’s objective. Well-anchored long-run inflation expectations therefore represent an important measure of the success of monetary policy. In this post, we look at the current anchoring of consumers’ long-run inflation expectations using novel data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Our results suggest that in August 2021 consumers’ five-year ahead inflation expectations were as well anchored as they were two years ago, before the start of the pandemic.

Keywords: inflation expectations; anchoring;

JEL Classification: D84; E31;