Discussion Paper

Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part Two


Abstract: In our previous post, we presented evidence suggesting that labor market indicators provide the most reliable information for dating the U.S. business cycle. In this post, we further develop the case. In fact, the unemployment rate has provided an almost perfect record of distinguishing the beginning of recessions in the post-war U.S. economy. We also show that using more granular labor market data, such as by region or industry, also provides valuable information about the state of the business cycle.

Keywords: expansions; Business cycle dating; recessions; labor market;

JEL Classification: E2;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Part of Series: Liberty Street Economics

Publication Date: 2020-02-12

Number: 20200212