Discussion Paper

Fundamental Disagreement: How Much and Why?


Abstract: Everyone disagrees, even professional forecasters, especially about big economic questions. Has potential output growth changed since the financial crisis? Are we bound for a period of ?secular stagnation?? Will the European economy rebound? When is inflation getting back to mandate-consistent level? In this post, we document to what degree professional forecasters disagree and discuss potential reasons why.

Keywords: Disagreement; Survey Forecasts;

JEL Classification: E2;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Part of Series: Liberty Street Economics

Publication Date: 2016-01-13

Number: 20160113