More Tariff Pass‑Through Is in the Pipeline

Abel, Jaison R.; Amiti, Mary; Deitz, Richard; Heise, Sebastian; Montalbano, Nick

doi:10.59576/lse.20260708

Discussion Paper

More Tariff Pass‑Through Is in the Pipeline

Abstract: The past year brought dramatic changes to U.S. trade policy, including sweeping new tariffs, as well as a Supreme Court decision that further reshaped the tariff landscape. Many businesses saw their costs increase significantly and faced complex decisions about whether to absorb the tariffs through lower profit margins, raise their prices to recover the higher costs, or some combination of the two. Last year, we found that most businesses had passed on at least some of these higher costs to their customers through higher prices. Now, over a year later, have businesses finished adjusting prices, or do further tariff-induced price increases lie ahead? Our latest regional business surveys reveal that nearly half of firms that have paid tariffs still plan additional price increases to offset these costs, with some expecting to raise prices six months or more in the future.

JEL Classification: F13; E31;

https://doi.org/10.59576/lse.20260708