Discussion Paper

Does the Phillips Curve Steepen When Costs Surge?

Abstract: Inflation does not always respond to cost and demand pressures in the same way. When shocks are small, the mapping from costs to prices is roughly proportional—double the shock, double the inflation response. But when the economy is hit by large shocks, this proportionality breaks down. As the recent surge and subsequent decline of global inflation showed, price growth can accelerate—or decelerate—by more than one-for-one relative to the size of the disturbance. Economists refer to this pattern as nonlinear inflation dynamics. In this post, I discuss what these nonlinearities mean, how they relate to the slope of the Phillips curve discussed in a companion post, and how firm-level data can help us understand the mechanisms behind them.

JEL Classification: E31; E32;

https://doi.org/10.59576/lse.20260205

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Part of Series: Liberty Street Economics

Publication Date: 2026-02-05

Number: 20260205