The predictive abilities of the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Deitz, Richard; Steindel, Charles

Journal Article

The predictive abilities of the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Abstract: Business surveys often give early signals of the direction and magnitude of economic activity. One release, the relatively new Empire State Manufacturing Survey, is demonstrating an ability to provide information ahead of U.S. production and employment trends. In fact, the predictive power of this survey appears to be at least equal to that of two established manufacturing surveys. This issue is part of the Second District Highlights series.

Keywords: Forecasting; Economic indicators; Manufactures - New York (State);