Rethinking the value of initial claims as a forecasting tool
Abstract: The weekly numbers on initial claims for unemployment insurance convey key information about the labor market. But how reliable are claims in predicting changes in the much anticipated monthly employment report? According to a simple forecasting model, claims consistently send an accurate signal about employment during recessions but not during expansions.
File(s): File format is text/html https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/current_issues/ci4-11.html
File(s): File format is application/pdf https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/current_issues/ci4-11.pdf
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Part of Series: Current Issues in Economics and Finance
Publication Date: 1998
Order Number: 11