Journal Article

Rethinking the value of initial claims as a forecasting tool

Abstract: The weekly numbers on initial claims for unemployment insurance convey key information about the labor market. But how reliable are claims in predicting changes in the much anticipated monthly employment report? According to a simple forecasting model, claims consistently send an accurate signal about employment during recessions but not during expansions.

Keywords: Unemployment insurance; Employment (Economic theory); Forecasting;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Part of Series: Current Issues in Economics and Finance

Publication Date: 1998

Volume: 4

Issue: Nov

Order Number: 11